Cubs 2.0
1. In your most objective and honest opinion... is Joe Maddon the man for the job with the Cubs long term success or just the guy who got them over the hump (curse)?
Well, Maddon is 63 as of about a week ago. He's one of the older managers in baseball - trailing only Terry Collins (67), Dusty Baker (67), and Pete Mackanin (65). Very few manage into their 70s these days, so it's reasonable to assume Maddon's career in the dugout is winding down. That said, he's considered by many to be one the best managers in baseball. This is still an area of the game that's poorly understood and nearly impossible to quantify. Most often, manager of the year is either awarded to the manager of the best team by record, or the manager of the team that most outperformed expectations. That's not necessarily because it's believed that person was the best manager, but rather nobody really knows the impact a manager has or what amount of a team's success, or failure, can/should be attributed to the manager. I think there's some criticism that can be made of Maddon as a in-game tactician. Most notably, perhaps, from co-author of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, Mitchel Lichtman, who was very critical Maddon's in-game decisions at several points during the season, including much of the postseason. However, it's possible that what Maddon might lack in way making the statistically sound decision in every scenario, he may may very well make up for with his open-mindedness and ability to effectively communicate, providing a bridge of sorts between the front office and the players. Maddon seems to be quite adept at being able to convince players to accept team-friendly roles, or adopt innovative instruction and philosophy relayed from the analytical departments. I don't think there's any real reason to be looking to move on from Joe at this time, but I have to say, I'm really surprised Maddon's long-time bench coach, Dave Martinez, hasn't yet been given a crack at a managerial position. I thought for sure he'd be hired away this off-season, but as far as I know, he wasn't even interviewed for a job. It makes me wonder if he hasn't some sort of handshake agreement to be Maddon's successor, as part of an eventual exit strategy for Joe into retirement.
2. Excluding anyone selected to All-Star game in '16, along with Heyward and Schwarber, who will be the most important player to step up for Cubs in 2017?
I think that's pretty easily Willson Contreras. He's going to be handed the bulk of the catching duties this year, including now Jon Lester. Offensively, he's already an above-average catcher. Now it's time for him to build on the defensive skills he displayed last season, rated above average by both FanGraphs Catcher Defense and StatCorner's Catcher Framing report. Albert Almora could also see an increased role this year, especially if Jason Heyward struggles at the plate once again. Almora can absolutely defend, and will certainly be late-inning replacement on days Schwarber starts in Left, but if he's going to claim a role as a regular he's going to need to make strides offensively.
3. Outside of any playoff team last year (2016) who do you cringe to see the Cubs have to face most in 2017?
I'm going to cheat some on this question, at least for a second, because there's really no team that finished outside the playoffs last season that I fear the Cubs playing. I really do fear the Los Angeles Dodgers, though. In fact, before the Cubs won the World Series last season, I was very concerned that the Cubs were coming into this competitive window at the same time the Dodgers were becoming both a financial and intellectual juggernaut in the National League. I'm less frightened now that the Cubs have at least secured that elusive first World Series in over a century, but I still think we're going to see the Cubs and Dodgers clashing in the playoffs pretty regularly over the next 5-10 years. Now, more to the spirit of your question, the Pirates and Cardinals are obviously still both very much competitive despite missing the playoffs last season. I don't think it should be taken for granted that the Cubs will repeat as Division Champs, although I do believe them to be the best team in the division. The Brewers could be a real pain in the ass to play in 2017, too. I don't expect them to be a very good team, but they have a lot of 'boom or bust' type offensive players (Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Lewis Brinson) to pair with some more steady performers like Braun, Villar, and their young defensive wizard at shortstop - Orlando Arcia. I could see them being one of those frustrating teams that can get hot over a weekend and sweep a series from a much better team. The hope is that you just catch them at the right time.
4. Who will end up being the MVP of the Cubs starters in 2017?
Jon Lester. The Cubs have been pretty fortunate to avoid any major injuries to their pitching staff the past couple years. Having Lester as the anchor of this staff, giving 200+ quality innings is incredibly valuable. There's now enough depth to this pitching staff to absorb an injury or two, but the one guy I don't think can be replaced is Lester. This team really needs his quality innings.
5. What AL team do you see being most improved in 2017?
The Houston Astros. They weren't a bad team last season, but they really stumbled out of the gate and never really recovered. They won 84 games in 2016 and finished 3rd in the AL West. In the off-season: they added Josh Reddick and Nori Aoki to the outfield, traded for Brian McCann to replace Jason Castro behind the plate, and signed Carlos Beltran to DH. I also think Charlie Morton was a sneaky good addition to their starting rotation. I think they have to be the favorites to win the AL West this year, and one of the early favorites, along with the Indians and Red Sox, to win the American League.
6. What ball club will suck in 2017, but you like their chances based off their moves and acquisitions (trades, draft, etc..)?
Again, Milwaukee has really impressed me. There are several pieces to a good rebuild. Obviously you want to build quality organizational depth, investing in the international market, capitalizing off high draft picks, and by trading Major League assets. But also, rebuilding affords you the freedom to provide opportunities to players with intriguing skill sets that have not been given an opportunity, have underperformed, or been incorrectly utilized elsewhere. Just finding a couple diamonds in the rough can make all the difference between a successful rebuild and a failure. The Brewers have done particularly well in this aspect of their rebuild. They've added Junior Guerra, who they scooped out of the Mexican League as a 31-year old, and now appears to be a solid #3 or 4 type starter they should be able to flip at the trade deadline for a nice package of prospects. They signed slugging first baseman Eric Thames out of the Korean League for a very team-friendly 3 years/$15. If he winds up hitting his projections, they should be trade him for a nice return. They gave Jonathan Villar a full-time job and he stole 62 bases and was a 3.0 WAR player. They're entering 2017 with Domingo Sanatana and Keon Broxton penciled in for full-time roles in the outfield. Both have issues making consistent contact, but both ranked in the Top 10 in exit velocity among MLs with at least 100 ABs in 2016. A list that includes names like Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Miguel Sano. There's a lot of talent on this roster that, even if not part of the next competitive Brewers team, could be cashed in to play a significant role in speeding up the timetable for their rebuild.
Kris Bryant. He's ridiculous.
8. What off-season move of the Cubs do you dislike most?
Not bringing back Dexter Fowler. I understand why, but that doesn't make it hurt any less. If Jason Heyward does bounce back, the Cubs glut of offensive talent will help hide the fact that this team doesn't really have a true full-time Center Fielder. I think the plan is for Heyward and Almora to more or less platoon in CF, with Jon Jay around as more of an insurance policy for Heyward. If Heyward is a disaster, I'd expect the Cubs to be far less patient with him in 2017, and he'll quickly start losing ABs to Jay/Almora in CF, and Zobrist in RF (with Baez playing regularly at 2B). In that case, Fowler's absence would be far more glaring.
9. Who will be the MVP of the bullpen in 2017?
If everything goes as planned, that should be the newly acquired Closer, Wade Davis, with Rondon Strop, and to a lesser extent, CJ Edwards, working in the set-up roles. Unfortunately, all three of Davis, Rondon, and Strop had arm troubles late last season and are pretty significant injury risks entering 2017. That means, CJ Edwards, who may be the team's future Closer beyond 2017, could be pressed into more of a high leverage role than anticipated.
10. Two parts... (a) who do you hope does the best from the class of Cubs in '16 who have now joined other clubs? (b) who do you think will have the most success in '17 with those of whom joined other clubs?
The answer to (a) is definitely Dexter Fowler, and I think the answer to (b) is likely Fowler as well. I'll be rooting for Dex to do well, but for the Cardinals to suck most of the year. I guess someone like Trevor Cahill (San Diego) and Travis Wood (Kansas City) could earn roles in the starting rotation with their new teams, but there really wasn't any departure from the 2016 Cubs as large as Fowler's.
11. Assuming the Cubs are in a similar leading position prior to trade deadline in '17, What trade or who would you like to see acquired to help in making a back to back WS championship a reality? (Assuming no major injuries)
Well, answering this kind of question comes with some qualifications and you already provided one - no major injuries. With no major injuries, the Cubs won't need to add another starting pitcher before the postseason. If there is one, that changes completely. The second qualification - assuming average production from Jason Heyward. If the Cubs get average offensive production from Heyward, they probably won't look to add a Center Fielder. If Heyward's struggle continue, they'll probably want to add a full-time CF for the stretch run. The market is pretty thin. Billy Hamilton could possibly be traded this season, but I kind of doubt the Reds would be eager to trade him to a division rival. Ender Inciarte, from the Braves, would be another option, but the asking price has been rumored to be pretty steep. If the Royals stumble early, they may look to trade Lorenzo Cain, who's a free-agent at season's end. He may be the best available option. The likeliest scenario is that the Cubs make another trade for a late-inning bullpen arm. Who might be the target is really hard to predict this far out from the trade deadline.
12. Whom do you think will end up being the 5th starter? It'd be nice to keep Montgomery in the pen, I think.
Montgomery is currently listed as the team's 5th starter, but I agree, he's probably best suited as the team's premier left-handed option out of the bullpen. I think the team would prefer to use him in that role, and if Brett Anderson can prove he's healthy this Spring, I'd expect him to break camp as the team's 5th starter. Looking at the schedule, the Cubs shouldn't need a 5th starter until April 17, so it's possible Montgomery will start in the bullpen no matter what, and Anderson could start the season in Iowa (although he has the right to refuse the assignment) in order to stay on schedule, with a starter's workload, until mid-April.
13. Vegas over/under that I saw has the Cubs at 97.5 wins. Under's a good bet, right? Good as the Cubs are, winning that many games is damn hard.
It's a fair bet that somebody is going to win at least 98 games, but setting a mean expectation of 97.5 wins for any single team is really aggressive. I think the Cubs and Dodgers are the two best teams entering 2017, and I think at least one of them will probably exceed 97 wins, but the under is always the smart bet for any individual team with the bar set that high. So, yeah, I completely agree.
14. Does Seattle still have a team? Am I still a fan? Why?
I'm sorry, Dane. I'm really, really sorry. The Mariners, again, are right on the brink of being a playoff team. I know it's probably difficult to find any reason to be optimistic with that projection given the team's recent lack of success with similar projections. However, if there is a reason to be optimistic, it's that the last time the Mariners were a good team prior to this recent stretch of decent play, it was in 2009, when they were an elite defensive team that couldn't score any runs. Recently, they've been a pretty good offensive team that couldn't field the ball. This off-season they brought in Jarrod Dyson to play LF, and Mitch Haniger to play RF, with Leonys Martin already in CF. That's probably the best defensive outfield in baseball. They're average defensively in the infield, so this isn't the elite defensive team of 2009, but they're also much better offensively. It's a nice balance. They shouldn't be offensively inept, and the defensive upgrades should really help their pitching staff, which is pretty solid at least 1-4 in the rotation, with a decent bullpen. Also, Edwin Diaz, their Closer, is a monster. If they're going to be mediocre again this season, at least they'll be mediocre is a different way.
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