I want to start by explaining this is not really a prediction for what I think the Cubs will do this offseason. It's just a reasonable path to being competitive that makes sense to me. This has no real value other than showing that, on paper at least, it's possible this team can compete in 2015 without turning into the Yankees and spending $300 million this offseason. What I'm going to do is go position by position, talk about what the Cubs can do at that position in 2015 and give an expected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for each position. The base number of wins for a Replacement level team is 47.7, and I'll use that number to give an estimate on how many wins the potential 2015 Cubs team could win based on the projected WAR at each position.
Catcher - This is the most difficult position to project because there is still so little agreed upon when it comes to the defensive value catchers have. The latest craze has been the surprising number of runs a Catcher can save, or cost, his team with his ability to frame pitches and steal strikes for his pitchers. 10 runs is roughly equal to one win added. In 2013, Jonathan Lucroy saved nearly 30 runs for Brewers pitchers, adding 2.9 WAR to his value. The Tampa Bay Rays have been all over this. They have two light-hitting, very inexpensive Catchers who specialize in pitch framing. Their current combination of Ryan Hanigan and Jose Molina combined to save 27 runs in 2013, and came at a fraction of the cost of many of the Catchers high on the list. In 2013, Cubs starting backstop Welington Castillo was third from last in MLB in pitch framing, costing his staff nearly 17 runs, and dropping his value by almost 2 full WAR. It's hard to tell what the Cubs will do, but one thing is certain, Welington Castillo is not a starting catcher. Russell Martin (32) will be a free agent, and if the Cubs don't acquire a Catcher through trade, he'd be my choice. He's average offensively, superb defensively, and among the leaders in catcher framing. He's coming off a 2yr/$17mil deal with the Pirates and it would probably take another 2-3 year deal in the $10mil/year range to bring him in. A catching combo of Martin/Castillo would project a WAR in the 3.5 range.
1st Base - This one's easy. Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs 1st Baseman and will be for years to come. He's shown in improved plate discipline and power in 2014, and has been much better against Lefties. Barring injury, he'll play nearly all of the Cubs games at 1st, occasionally getting the day off against tough Lefties for Mike Olt, who hits well against left-handed pitching. I'd expect a WAR of 4.0 from that combo.
2nd Base - This is Javier Baez's job to lose. He's the biggest wild card for the Cubs, and right along with freshly called-up Astros' prospect George Springer, one of the biggest wild cards in baseball. Baez, like Springer, strikes out a ton. To be an above average offensive player, Baez will either need to improve his contact rate, or maximize his contact results to levels we've rarely seen before. Chris Davis did it despite striking out in nearly 30% of his ABs since 2012, and George Springer is doing it right now for the Astros, albeit in a very small sample size. I'd expect Baez to get in the neighborhood of 500 ABs, hit in the .240 range with 20ish HRs and 10 SBs. With there not being enough information to determine what kind of defender Baez will be at 2nd Base in the Majors, I'm just going to assume he'll be ML average until shown otherwise. I would project Baez to debut with a WAR around 1.7. The other 100 or so ABs at 2nd would likely go to some combination of Darwin Barney/Luis Valbuena and net the Cubs very little. Maybe around 1/3 of a win. That's brings us to a total WAR of 2.0, or Major League average, with a big question mark over how great an impact Javier Baez will have when he puts on a Cubs uniform full-time.
3rd Base - Some of you may be surprised to not see Kris Bryant listed here. No worries though, I'll have him listed at another position later in this breakdown. Others, mostly my few Twitter follows, may know exactly where I'm going with this. Chase Headley (31 next season). Headley is currently the Padres 3rd baseman and will be a free-agent at season's end. One of the things that excites me the most about Headley is that he's struggling terribly with the bat in his contract year. It may provide an opportunity to lock him up to a multi-year deal at a fairly significant value, although I could see the Padres trying to re-sign him, or the Yankees getting involved. A similar player, Jhonny Peralta, got 4yr/$53mil from St. Louis this past off-season. A Chase Headley deal would probably look a like that. He's just above average with the bat, but he's been fantastic defensively at 3rd Base with the Padres. As a switch hitter, Headley doesn't have large lefty/righty splits, but like Rizzo, he'd yield some ABs against lefties to Mike Olt. The Headley/Olt combo gets a WAR of 3.5.
Shortstop - Another easy one. It will be Starlin Castro for nearly all the PAs at SS barring injury. Darwin Barney may get a couple games but he'll provide only replacement level production. At this point, Castro is only about average with the bat, but he has turned himself into a plus defender at Short which has saved him from being a complete bust. He's a 2.3 WAR player, a slightly above average ML starter.
Left Field - The Cubs outfield situation is a mess. The Cubs still hope Jorge Soler will one day man a spot in the Cubs outfield but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and progress as quickly as the Cubs had hoped. The Cubs will again need to go outside the organization to fill this need. I nominate another Padres' free agent, Seth Smith (32). If the Cubs sign Smith, it'll likely be in the 3yr/$28mil range. Similar to contract Cody Ross got from Arizona after the 2012 season. Smith would take all the ABs in LF against right-handed starters. He's a pure platoon guy. He crushes righties and can't touch lefties. Junior Lake, who's proven in this year and half audition that he's not a full-time player, will get all the starts against left-handers. Seth Smith has a strong bat but isn't a particular skilled defender. Lake is an average defender and has shown to be slightly above average against LHP. Overall this LF platoon could combine for a WAR of 2.3
Center Field - Again, a mess. The long term hope is Albert Almora will claim this position eventually but he's a long way away, and would not likely to be ready until mid-2016 at the earliest. Current Center Fielder, Emilio Bonifacio, is a free agent at season's end. Justin Ruggiano will also be a free agent. At Triple-A the Cubs have started giving Arismendy Alcantara some time in the outfield but I'm not convinced he'll hit enough. Brett Jackson continues to regress. Matt Szczur's ceiling is a reserve outfielder. I've heard the Cubs linked to Colby Rasmus (I think mostly Cubs fans starting that rumor) but I don't see that happening. He's not worth the price tag. I really only see two options. Trade for a Center Fielder or re-sign Bonifacio. A trade is a possibility. The Cubs are likely going to moving both Samardzija and Hammel at some point and they may fill this need in the process. They could also trade for an undervalued defensive wizard to play CF. The Cardinals have a ton of outfield depth and may be willing to trade Peter Bourjos. As Lorenzo Cain has a mini-breakout, Jarrod Dyson of the Royals may become expendable and is another intriguing option. For now though I'm listing this position as somewhat incomplete and assuming Emilio Bonifacio will open 2015 as the club's starting CF, with replacement level fill-ins. That's worth 1.5 WAR.
Right Field - Kris Bryant. Destroyer of worlds. It's possible he'll remain at 3rd but if his defense proves to be a liability, he'll end up in the outfield like former 3rd base prospects, Ryan Braun and Alex Gordon. It's taken time for Braun to work himself into an average defender, but Alex Gordon was an above average outfielder from day one and has now become elite. There's no telling how Bryant would play in RF so, like I did with Baez, I'm just going to assume average for the sake of this exercise. Offensively, there are very few questions remaining. Kris Bryant is almost certainly going to produce. The only question is, how high is the ceiling? Like Baez, that's largely going to depend on his contact rate in the Majors. It hasn't been as much of a concern with Bryant as it has with Baez but it's still a concern. I'm just going to go with the 2015 Oliver projection for Bryant. .259, .328 OBP, with 32HRs and a .511 SLG%. If Bryant has that season, with average defense, he'll be worth 3.5 WAR. He's a potential superstar, and wherever he does wind up in the field, if he proves to be a plus defender, he could double that WAR in the following seasons.
Starting Rotation - This is another position where any attempt to forecast for next season is premature until we see what happens with Samardzija and Hammel. That said, I'm still going to do it. He is what we know. Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, and Jake Arrieta are all likely to factor in to next year's plans. Travis Wood is a 2.0 WAR pitcher. Edwin Jackson is worth 1.2 WAR. In a limited capacity, Arrieta is worth 0.5 WAR. The Cubs are likely to get some pitching in return for Samardzija and Hammel but the quality and readiness of that return is unknown so I'm not including any potential returns from those trades. The only really prized pitching prospect the Cubs have, CJ Edwards, is likely to debut at some point in 2015 (assuming no further issues with his shoulder), and I expect he'll be productive immediately. I put Edwards at 1.4 WAR in half a season. That leaves two near full-time spots open. Some interesting free agent options are Francisco Liriano (31), Justin Masterson (30), Jon Lester (31), Brandon McCarthy (31), Ervin Santana (32), Max Scherzer (30), and James Shields (33). I'd bet my house, if I had one, at least one of those guys is in a Cubs uniform to start 2015. Having no clue what return they'll get in trade this season, and which free agent pitchers may sign in the offseason, so I'm just going to give the Cubs 4.4 WAR for those last two rotation spots. That's probably low, as Justin Masterson alone is a 3 WAR pitcher. The number of innings I factored in for each pitcher leaves room for some expected small injuries and Theo and Jed have done very well finding and collection rotation depth, so whether it's Carlos Villanueva returning, or some other combination of bargain pitchers, I'm giving the Cubs 0.6 WAR for fill-in starts.
Bullpen - Despite all the horrific memories of Jose Veras still fresh in our minds, the Cubs have quietly assembled a pretty respectable bullpen. Neil Ramirez has been dominant in his time since being called up. Hector Rondon has been very good. Pedro Strop has pitched much better than his 4.50 ERA suggests. Justin Grimm is a solid middle reliever. Blake Parker, Zac Rosscup, and James Russell are all varying degrees of serviceable. Wesley Wright is good against lefties. Brian Schlitter doesn't make me throw things. Kyuji Fujikawa is working his way back from Tommy John and will likely pitch later this year. Arodys Vizcaino has been dominant in the Minors working his way back from Tommy John this year. All of these guys except Wright and Schlitter are under contract through next season. The Cubs could have a pretty decent bullpen without investing any free agent money in the pen in the off-season but one interesting trend from last year's free agency was the falling prices of relief pitchers. There are all sorts of interesting relief pitchers available, it's pointless for me to even list them. I'll link here and you can see for yourselves. Point is, the Cubs figure to have a better than average bullpen. I figure an average bullpen is worth about 2.7 WAR. With the Cubs depth and quality, I'll give their bullpen a 3.0 WAR projection.
Summary - The 2015 Cubs team I projected looks something like this....
1. CF - Emilio Bonifacio
2. SS - Starlin Castro
3. 1B - Anthony Rizzo
4. RF - Kris Bryant
5. LF - Seth Smith (vs. RHP)/ Junior Lake (vs. LHP)
6. 3B - Chase Headley
7. 2B - Javier Baez
8. C - Russell Martin / Welington Castillo
SP - 1. Justin Masterson
2. Travis Wood
3. Edwin Jackson
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Jake Arrieta / C.J. Edwards
6. Depth
Total WAR for the Cubs hitters: 22.6
Total WAR for Cubs pitchers: 13.5
Total Win for a replacement level team: 47.7
Cubs 2015 projected win total: 83.8
I was pretty conservative with these projections and this number is assuming the Cubs do not sign an ace starting pitcher. This is also without whatever the Cubs figure to acquire in return for trading Samardzija and Hammel later this season. I think this number shows the Cubs ability to compete as soon as next season. Using these same methods (although with the roster fully intact) I had projected the Brewers to win 80 games this season. They're currently in 1st Place in the Central and hold a 56.8% chance of making the Playoffs. An 84-win projection gives you shot. There is reason to be optimistic.
