It's only been a matter of hours and I've already had several people ask me if this is a good deal for the Cubs. As much as I am flattered having anyone respect my opinion on anything enough to seek it out, I feel like it's a question asked expecting a fairly simple yes or no answer, and I haven't had a fairly simple yes or no answer to give any of these people. It's more complicated than that. There are too many variables to consider. What I'm going to attempt to accomplish with the following is explain everything that comes to my mind when I'm asked "Is this a good trade?" Then, after a bunch of context most people aren't interested in listening to, hopefully I'll have a final yes or no answer to their question. With this blog post, as any trade involving a crop of prospects, only time will tell if it's successful.
I'd like to start by quickly stating how much I love this trade for the Oakland A's. Anyone who's spent time around me this baseball season knows how much I appreciate what the A's front office has accomplished, yet again. As a Cubs fan, any hope I might have had going into the season for having a rooting interest in a contending team died around April 15. It wasn't long after that I recognized just how dominant the Oakland A's seemed to be. I immediately adopted the A's as the team I was rooting for to win the World Series, mostly just on the principle they deserve it more than anyone else. I even went as far as purchasing an Oakland A's hat about a month ago. A hat I'm now almost certainly going to wear to Wrigley next weekend on our annual Cubs Trip to visit The Friendly Confines. Samardzija and Hammel are legitimately good pitchers. This is a significant upgrade to the A's rotation that has been hit hard by injuries. Their odds of winning the World Series definitely improved with this deal, and it does not matter what happens with any of the prospects they traded away in this deal, if they do win a World Series with this current group of players, this trade was a success for them. Now, I didn't just write all of that out of pure love and admiration for the A's. The way Oakland has constructed their contending team ties heavily to my first point concerning the Cubs current approach, and the baseball landscape as a whole, but first a quick history lesson is required.
In a quick homage to Moneyball, as much as the Joe Morgans of the world might try to convince you that nobody changes baseball, the truth is the baseball world is ever-changing. Like all competitive sports leagues, it's a copycat league. There are fads and trends, generally set by the most successful teams of the time, that are copied all around the league, go in and out of style, and eventually some new knowledge is gained by testing these ideas and theories to their limits both on the field and in the front offices. Baseball is constantly getting smarter and more advanced, and the pace at which it's learning is increasing to match or exceed the pace of growth in the monetary investment in it's players, also known as risk. The baseball landscape even just 10 years ago was drastically different than it is today. In the early 1990's John Hart, GM of the Cleveland Indians at the time, started negotiating pre-arbitration extensions with multiple talented, young players to avoid ""running an entire class through arbitration" and "demonstrate to our fan base that we were in this for the long haul." The Indians were extremely successful as a small market team using this model, winning 6 AL Central titles in 7 years, and making two appearances in the World Series over that time. By the time Hart stepped down as GM of the Indians in 2001, most of his core group of players had reached free-agency and cashed in large deals with big-market clubs. This was a time when good players, still in their prime years were widely available on the free agent market and the prices were quite reasonable. This lead contending teams to not hesitate to trade their own developing talent for established Major League contributors because this strategy was affordable and effective on most budgets. However, baseball had taken notice of what the Indians had done and slowly started applying this new information. In the coming years, pre-arb extensions would become increasingly common, especially among small-market teams. In locking up a player to a long-term extension so early, teams absorb some risk the player will not reach his potential through under-performance or injury, but stand to save a ton of money if the player reaches or exceeds expectations. These deals are generally team-friendly. This, combined with other more recent changes to the CBA, decreased the number of quality free-agents available and drove up costs for those free agents that were available. Only a select few teams were now able to afford to build rosters consisting heavily of free-agent acquisitions. This has made prospects as valuable as gold. Gone are the days of the Atlanta Braves trading away their entire farm system for 700 ABs of Mark Teixeira. The most valuable asset to Major League teams is a price controlled player. Baseball has changed.
While most teams, including our beloved Cubbies, are collecting, hoarding, and extending into their free-agent years as many prospects as they can, one team is doing just the opposite. The Oakland A's. The A's, always searching for market inefficiencies, are ahead of the curve once again. Teams are now undervaluing their average to above average Major League talent and overvaluing these prospects in hopes of hitting a home-run at the cost of a double. This team Oakland has constructed, that I praise so much, has been largely built by trading away their own prospects to teams who have under-appreciated what they have in the Majors. Although brilliant, it has come with a price..... the window for this A's team to win is limited. They've traded away much of their minor league system for players currently in their prime, so once these players exit their prime, or reach free agency, the A's don't have much to fall back on and will likely have to go into a Cubs/Astros style tank and rebuild process. The A's were at a point where it made sense to push the chips all-in and the Cubs had the players they needed.
One question I got was "Aren't Samardzija and Hammel worth more than just 4 prospects?" To answer that, you need to understand the information I've provided above. Teams are more reluctant to part with high level prospects than ever before. For an example, look at this wonderfully done mock-trade exercise put together for Rays pitcher David Price (better than both Hammel and Samardzija). The best offer was less impressive than the haul the Cubs are receiving in this deal. Remember, Hammel, despite having a great 2014 season, signed a 1-year deal with the Cubs this Spring with the sole purpose of being traded right about now. He's a 3-month rental for the A's and his value was limited. Samardzija is free-agent after next season and is asking for a long-term extension in the neighborhood of the 6yr/$105 million deal Homer Bailey got from the Reds. That's not a good deal. Not only are the A's (a small market team) not going to give Samardzija that extension, but depending on how much they are capable of increasing their budget, they may want to unload him this off-season before he's due another significant raise in arbitration heading into 2015. They may have traded away 3 of their top 4 prospects for two rental players. No other team in MLB was going to do that.
Now, to take a look at what the Cubs got back.....
Dan Straily. I like Straily quite a bit. He's fly ball pitcher who's had mixed success at the Major League level so far. He's giving up too many homeruns but that's partially tough luck and partially falling behind and getting into predictable counts. He needs to throw more strikes, and looking at the Cubs ability to quickly improve Hammel, Samardzija, and Jake Arrieta (see this article) much through approach, I think it's possible we'll see something similar with Straily. One thing Straily does well is miss bats. He's only struck out 7.43/9 in his career, but he's currently posting an 80% Z-Contact% (Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone (PITCHf/x). Straily hasn't thrown enough innings to qualify for league leaders, but the best Z-Contact% in MLB is currently Chris Sale at 81%. In 38 innings, Straily has got more swings and misses at strikes than anyone on the MLB leaderboard which, along with Sale, includes names like Weaver, Scherzer, Wacha, Ventura, and Teheran. Good company. Even if he doesn't take a step forward, he's a solid addition as a reliable back-end of the rotation starter. If he does take that step forward, he could be a good #3.
Billy McKinney. This is the player in this deal furthest from the Majors, and being so fresh into his professional career, he's the most difficult to assess. At just 19, he's the 6th youngest player in all of High-A ball, so his minor struggles adjusting to that level are not too alarming. The power will come. What is encouraging is his mastery of the strike zone at an advanced level for his age. He's showing an above average ability to take walks as well as an above average ability to limit strikeouts. Scouts rate him out at average to above average in all tools, so he's a "jack of trades, master of none" type of player in the eyes of the scouts, who also report he has a strong work ethic and plays the game all out. He's an intriguing prospect to keep an eye on, and the Cubs certainly hope will fit in to their future plans as a corner outfielder, but is far from a finished product. He's at least a couple years away from playing at Wrigley.
Addison Russell. The real prize of this deal. The #11 prospect in all of baseball. These players don't get traded very often these days. Russell, now the 6th youngest player in Double-A, hit very well in High-A in 2013 as one the youngest players at that level as well. He displayed a tantalizing combination of power and speed to go with excellent plate discipline. The beginning of Russell's 2014 season was delayed by a hamstring injury, and he has only recently returned to play at Double-A, where he's continued to impress over his first 57 ABs. It's entirely possible had Addison Russell not suffered a hamstring injury, he would have produced at such a level at Double-A (much like Bryant has for the Cubs this season), the A's would have considered him untouchable and refused to include him in trade talks. Despite initial concerns whether or not he could remain at Shortstop defensively, he's proven to have all the tools to now project as a plus defender. How he fits into the Cubs picture is yet to be seen. It's possible Bryant moved to the Outfield and some combination of Castro/Baez/Russell play 2B/3B/SS, it's possible he moves to the Outfield, or it's possible one of these guys is going to be traded to fill a different organizational need. That's all going to have to play itself out.
I've seen no speculation on who might be the player to be named later in this deal. It's possible they're still negotiating from a group of players on the player to be named, or it could be dependent on whether or not the A's keep Samardzija past this season. Who knows. I want to say I really like Billy Burns (reminds me of a young Juan Pierre with a better batting eye) and he could fill a huge hole in CF for the Cubs, but speculating is pointless and I'm just going to skip right over this part of the deal.
In closing, would this be good deal for the Cubs in the baseball universe 6 years ago? Maybe not. Is this a good today for the Cubs today? Absolutely. If the Cubs don't trade Samardzija and Hammel, they still suck, and all the Cubs get in return is one compensation pick when Samardzija signs a ridiculous deal somewhere else next off-season. This is much better than that. This makes them a better team for potentially a decade. The baseball landscape has changed. Trade expectations involving prospects need to change with it.
Saturday, July 5, 2014
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Cubs can and should compete in 2015
I want to start by explaining this is not really a prediction for what I think the Cubs will do this offseason. It's just a reasonable path to being competitive that makes sense to me. This has no real value other than showing that, on paper at least, it's possible this team can compete in 2015 without turning into the Yankees and spending $300 million this offseason. What I'm going to do is go position by position, talk about what the Cubs can do at that position in 2015 and give an expected WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for each position. The base number of wins for a Replacement level team is 47.7, and I'll use that number to give an estimate on how many wins the potential 2015 Cubs team could win based on the projected WAR at each position.
Catcher - This is the most difficult position to project because there is still so little agreed upon when it comes to the defensive value catchers have. The latest craze has been the surprising number of runs a Catcher can save, or cost, his team with his ability to frame pitches and steal strikes for his pitchers. 10 runs is roughly equal to one win added. In 2013, Jonathan Lucroy saved nearly 30 runs for Brewers pitchers, adding 2.9 WAR to his value. The Tampa Bay Rays have been all over this. They have two light-hitting, very inexpensive Catchers who specialize in pitch framing. Their current combination of Ryan Hanigan and Jose Molina combined to save 27 runs in 2013, and came at a fraction of the cost of many of the Catchers high on the list. In 2013, Cubs starting backstop Welington Castillo was third from last in MLB in pitch framing, costing his staff nearly 17 runs, and dropping his value by almost 2 full WAR. It's hard to tell what the Cubs will do, but one thing is certain, Welington Castillo is not a starting catcher. Russell Martin (32) will be a free agent, and if the Cubs don't acquire a Catcher through trade, he'd be my choice. He's average offensively, superb defensively, and among the leaders in catcher framing. He's coming off a 2yr/$17mil deal with the Pirates and it would probably take another 2-3 year deal in the $10mil/year range to bring him in. A catching combo of Martin/Castillo would project a WAR in the 3.5 range.
1st Base - This one's easy. Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs 1st Baseman and will be for years to come. He's shown in improved plate discipline and power in 2014, and has been much better against Lefties. Barring injury, he'll play nearly all of the Cubs games at 1st, occasionally getting the day off against tough Lefties for Mike Olt, who hits well against left-handed pitching. I'd expect a WAR of 4.0 from that combo.
2nd Base - This is Javier Baez's job to lose. He's the biggest wild card for the Cubs, and right along with freshly called-up Astros' prospect George Springer, one of the biggest wild cards in baseball. Baez, like Springer, strikes out a ton. To be an above average offensive player, Baez will either need to improve his contact rate, or maximize his contact results to levels we've rarely seen before. Chris Davis did it despite striking out in nearly 30% of his ABs since 2012, and George Springer is doing it right now for the Astros, albeit in a very small sample size. I'd expect Baez to get in the neighborhood of 500 ABs, hit in the .240 range with 20ish HRs and 10 SBs. With there not being enough information to determine what kind of defender Baez will be at 2nd Base in the Majors, I'm just going to assume he'll be ML average until shown otherwise. I would project Baez to debut with a WAR around 1.7. The other 100 or so ABs at 2nd would likely go to some combination of Darwin Barney/Luis Valbuena and net the Cubs very little. Maybe around 1/3 of a win. That's brings us to a total WAR of 2.0, or Major League average, with a big question mark over how great an impact Javier Baez will have when he puts on a Cubs uniform full-time.
3rd Base - Some of you may be surprised to not see Kris Bryant listed here. No worries though, I'll have him listed at another position later in this breakdown. Others, mostly my few Twitter follows, may know exactly where I'm going with this. Chase Headley (31 next season). Headley is currently the Padres 3rd baseman and will be a free-agent at season's end. One of the things that excites me the most about Headley is that he's struggling terribly with the bat in his contract year. It may provide an opportunity to lock him up to a multi-year deal at a fairly significant value, although I could see the Padres trying to re-sign him, or the Yankees getting involved. A similar player, Jhonny Peralta, got 4yr/$53mil from St. Louis this past off-season. A Chase Headley deal would probably look a like that. He's just above average with the bat, but he's been fantastic defensively at 3rd Base with the Padres. As a switch hitter, Headley doesn't have large lefty/righty splits, but like Rizzo, he'd yield some ABs against lefties to Mike Olt. The Headley/Olt combo gets a WAR of 3.5.
Shortstop - Another easy one. It will be Starlin Castro for nearly all the PAs at SS barring injury. Darwin Barney may get a couple games but he'll provide only replacement level production. At this point, Castro is only about average with the bat, but he has turned himself into a plus defender at Short which has saved him from being a complete bust. He's a 2.3 WAR player, a slightly above average ML starter.
Left Field - The Cubs outfield situation is a mess. The Cubs still hope Jorge Soler will one day man a spot in the Cubs outfield but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and progress as quickly as the Cubs had hoped. The Cubs will again need to go outside the organization to fill this need. I nominate another Padres' free agent, Seth Smith (32). If the Cubs sign Smith, it'll likely be in the 3yr/$28mil range. Similar to contract Cody Ross got from Arizona after the 2012 season. Smith would take all the ABs in LF against right-handed starters. He's a pure platoon guy. He crushes righties and can't touch lefties. Junior Lake, who's proven in this year and half audition that he's not a full-time player, will get all the starts against left-handers. Seth Smith has a strong bat but isn't a particular skilled defender. Lake is an average defender and has shown to be slightly above average against LHP. Overall this LF platoon could combine for a WAR of 2.3
Center Field - Again, a mess. The long term hope is Albert Almora will claim this position eventually but he's a long way away, and would not likely to be ready until mid-2016 at the earliest. Current Center Fielder, Emilio Bonifacio, is a free agent at season's end. Justin Ruggiano will also be a free agent. At Triple-A the Cubs have started giving Arismendy Alcantara some time in the outfield but I'm not convinced he'll hit enough. Brett Jackson continues to regress. Matt Szczur's ceiling is a reserve outfielder. I've heard the Cubs linked to Colby Rasmus (I think mostly Cubs fans starting that rumor) but I don't see that happening. He's not worth the price tag. I really only see two options. Trade for a Center Fielder or re-sign Bonifacio. A trade is a possibility. The Cubs are likely going to moving both Samardzija and Hammel at some point and they may fill this need in the process. They could also trade for an undervalued defensive wizard to play CF. The Cardinals have a ton of outfield depth and may be willing to trade Peter Bourjos. As Lorenzo Cain has a mini-breakout, Jarrod Dyson of the Royals may become expendable and is another intriguing option. For now though I'm listing this position as somewhat incomplete and assuming Emilio Bonifacio will open 2015 as the club's starting CF, with replacement level fill-ins. That's worth 1.5 WAR.
Right Field - Kris Bryant. Destroyer of worlds. It's possible he'll remain at 3rd but if his defense proves to be a liability, he'll end up in the outfield like former 3rd base prospects, Ryan Braun and Alex Gordon. It's taken time for Braun to work himself into an average defender, but Alex Gordon was an above average outfielder from day one and has now become elite. There's no telling how Bryant would play in RF so, like I did with Baez, I'm just going to assume average for the sake of this exercise. Offensively, there are very few questions remaining. Kris Bryant is almost certainly going to produce. The only question is, how high is the ceiling? Like Baez, that's largely going to depend on his contact rate in the Majors. It hasn't been as much of a concern with Bryant as it has with Baez but it's still a concern. I'm just going to go with the 2015 Oliver projection for Bryant. .259, .328 OBP, with 32HRs and a .511 SLG%. If Bryant has that season, with average defense, he'll be worth 3.5 WAR. He's a potential superstar, and wherever he does wind up in the field, if he proves to be a plus defender, he could double that WAR in the following seasons.
Starting Rotation - This is another position where any attempt to forecast for next season is premature until we see what happens with Samardzija and Hammel. That said, I'm still going to do it. He is what we know. Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, and Jake Arrieta are all likely to factor in to next year's plans. Travis Wood is a 2.0 WAR pitcher. Edwin Jackson is worth 1.2 WAR. In a limited capacity, Arrieta is worth 0.5 WAR. The Cubs are likely to get some pitching in return for Samardzija and Hammel but the quality and readiness of that return is unknown so I'm not including any potential returns from those trades. The only really prized pitching prospect the Cubs have, CJ Edwards, is likely to debut at some point in 2015 (assuming no further issues with his shoulder), and I expect he'll be productive immediately. I put Edwards at 1.4 WAR in half a season. That leaves two near full-time spots open. Some interesting free agent options are Francisco Liriano (31), Justin Masterson (30), Jon Lester (31), Brandon McCarthy (31), Ervin Santana (32), Max Scherzer (30), and James Shields (33). I'd bet my house, if I had one, at least one of those guys is in a Cubs uniform to start 2015. Having no clue what return they'll get in trade this season, and which free agent pitchers may sign in the offseason, so I'm just going to give the Cubs 4.4 WAR for those last two rotation spots. That's probably low, as Justin Masterson alone is a 3 WAR pitcher. The number of innings I factored in for each pitcher leaves room for some expected small injuries and Theo and Jed have done very well finding and collection rotation depth, so whether it's Carlos Villanueva returning, or some other combination of bargain pitchers, I'm giving the Cubs 0.6 WAR for fill-in starts.
Bullpen - Despite all the horrific memories of Jose Veras still fresh in our minds, the Cubs have quietly assembled a pretty respectable bullpen. Neil Ramirez has been dominant in his time since being called up. Hector Rondon has been very good. Pedro Strop has pitched much better than his 4.50 ERA suggests. Justin Grimm is a solid middle reliever. Blake Parker, Zac Rosscup, and James Russell are all varying degrees of serviceable. Wesley Wright is good against lefties. Brian Schlitter doesn't make me throw things. Kyuji Fujikawa is working his way back from Tommy John and will likely pitch later this year. Arodys Vizcaino has been dominant in the Minors working his way back from Tommy John this year. All of these guys except Wright and Schlitter are under contract through next season. The Cubs could have a pretty decent bullpen without investing any free agent money in the pen in the off-season but one interesting trend from last year's free agency was the falling prices of relief pitchers. There are all sorts of interesting relief pitchers available, it's pointless for me to even list them. I'll link here and you can see for yourselves. Point is, the Cubs figure to have a better than average bullpen. I figure an average bullpen is worth about 2.7 WAR. With the Cubs depth and quality, I'll give their bullpen a 3.0 WAR projection.
Summary - The 2015 Cubs team I projected looks something like this....
1. CF - Emilio Bonifacio
2. SS - Starlin Castro
3. 1B - Anthony Rizzo
4. RF - Kris Bryant
5. LF - Seth Smith (vs. RHP)/ Junior Lake (vs. LHP)
6. 3B - Chase Headley
7. 2B - Javier Baez
8. C - Russell Martin / Welington Castillo
SP - 1. Justin Masterson
2. Travis Wood
3. Edwin Jackson
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Jake Arrieta / C.J. Edwards
6. Depth
Total WAR for the Cubs hitters: 22.6
Total WAR for Cubs pitchers: 13.5
Total Win for a replacement level team: 47.7
Cubs 2015 projected win total: 83.8
I was pretty conservative with these projections and this number is assuming the Cubs do not sign an ace starting pitcher. This is also without whatever the Cubs figure to acquire in return for trading Samardzija and Hammel later this season. I think this number shows the Cubs ability to compete as soon as next season. Using these same methods (although with the roster fully intact) I had projected the Brewers to win 80 games this season. They're currently in 1st Place in the Central and hold a 56.8% chance of making the Playoffs. An 84-win projection gives you shot. There is reason to be optimistic.
Catcher - This is the most difficult position to project because there is still so little agreed upon when it comes to the defensive value catchers have. The latest craze has been the surprising number of runs a Catcher can save, or cost, his team with his ability to frame pitches and steal strikes for his pitchers. 10 runs is roughly equal to one win added. In 2013, Jonathan Lucroy saved nearly 30 runs for Brewers pitchers, adding 2.9 WAR to his value. The Tampa Bay Rays have been all over this. They have two light-hitting, very inexpensive Catchers who specialize in pitch framing. Their current combination of Ryan Hanigan and Jose Molina combined to save 27 runs in 2013, and came at a fraction of the cost of many of the Catchers high on the list. In 2013, Cubs starting backstop Welington Castillo was third from last in MLB in pitch framing, costing his staff nearly 17 runs, and dropping his value by almost 2 full WAR. It's hard to tell what the Cubs will do, but one thing is certain, Welington Castillo is not a starting catcher. Russell Martin (32) will be a free agent, and if the Cubs don't acquire a Catcher through trade, he'd be my choice. He's average offensively, superb defensively, and among the leaders in catcher framing. He's coming off a 2yr/$17mil deal with the Pirates and it would probably take another 2-3 year deal in the $10mil/year range to bring him in. A catching combo of Martin/Castillo would project a WAR in the 3.5 range.
1st Base - This one's easy. Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs 1st Baseman and will be for years to come. He's shown in improved plate discipline and power in 2014, and has been much better against Lefties. Barring injury, he'll play nearly all of the Cubs games at 1st, occasionally getting the day off against tough Lefties for Mike Olt, who hits well against left-handed pitching. I'd expect a WAR of 4.0 from that combo.
2nd Base - This is Javier Baez's job to lose. He's the biggest wild card for the Cubs, and right along with freshly called-up Astros' prospect George Springer, one of the biggest wild cards in baseball. Baez, like Springer, strikes out a ton. To be an above average offensive player, Baez will either need to improve his contact rate, or maximize his contact results to levels we've rarely seen before. Chris Davis did it despite striking out in nearly 30% of his ABs since 2012, and George Springer is doing it right now for the Astros, albeit in a very small sample size. I'd expect Baez to get in the neighborhood of 500 ABs, hit in the .240 range with 20ish HRs and 10 SBs. With there not being enough information to determine what kind of defender Baez will be at 2nd Base in the Majors, I'm just going to assume he'll be ML average until shown otherwise. I would project Baez to debut with a WAR around 1.7. The other 100 or so ABs at 2nd would likely go to some combination of Darwin Barney/Luis Valbuena and net the Cubs very little. Maybe around 1/3 of a win. That's brings us to a total WAR of 2.0, or Major League average, with a big question mark over how great an impact Javier Baez will have when he puts on a Cubs uniform full-time.
3rd Base - Some of you may be surprised to not see Kris Bryant listed here. No worries though, I'll have him listed at another position later in this breakdown. Others, mostly my few Twitter follows, may know exactly where I'm going with this. Chase Headley (31 next season). Headley is currently the Padres 3rd baseman and will be a free-agent at season's end. One of the things that excites me the most about Headley is that he's struggling terribly with the bat in his contract year. It may provide an opportunity to lock him up to a multi-year deal at a fairly significant value, although I could see the Padres trying to re-sign him, or the Yankees getting involved. A similar player, Jhonny Peralta, got 4yr/$53mil from St. Louis this past off-season. A Chase Headley deal would probably look a like that. He's just above average with the bat, but he's been fantastic defensively at 3rd Base with the Padres. As a switch hitter, Headley doesn't have large lefty/righty splits, but like Rizzo, he'd yield some ABs against lefties to Mike Olt. The Headley/Olt combo gets a WAR of 3.5.
Shortstop - Another easy one. It will be Starlin Castro for nearly all the PAs at SS barring injury. Darwin Barney may get a couple games but he'll provide only replacement level production. At this point, Castro is only about average with the bat, but he has turned himself into a plus defender at Short which has saved him from being a complete bust. He's a 2.3 WAR player, a slightly above average ML starter.
Left Field - The Cubs outfield situation is a mess. The Cubs still hope Jorge Soler will one day man a spot in the Cubs outfield but he hasn't been able to stay healthy and progress as quickly as the Cubs had hoped. The Cubs will again need to go outside the organization to fill this need. I nominate another Padres' free agent, Seth Smith (32). If the Cubs sign Smith, it'll likely be in the 3yr/$28mil range. Similar to contract Cody Ross got from Arizona after the 2012 season. Smith would take all the ABs in LF against right-handed starters. He's a pure platoon guy. He crushes righties and can't touch lefties. Junior Lake, who's proven in this year and half audition that he's not a full-time player, will get all the starts against left-handers. Seth Smith has a strong bat but isn't a particular skilled defender. Lake is an average defender and has shown to be slightly above average against LHP. Overall this LF platoon could combine for a WAR of 2.3
Center Field - Again, a mess. The long term hope is Albert Almora will claim this position eventually but he's a long way away, and would not likely to be ready until mid-2016 at the earliest. Current Center Fielder, Emilio Bonifacio, is a free agent at season's end. Justin Ruggiano will also be a free agent. At Triple-A the Cubs have started giving Arismendy Alcantara some time in the outfield but I'm not convinced he'll hit enough. Brett Jackson continues to regress. Matt Szczur's ceiling is a reserve outfielder. I've heard the Cubs linked to Colby Rasmus (I think mostly Cubs fans starting that rumor) but I don't see that happening. He's not worth the price tag. I really only see two options. Trade for a Center Fielder or re-sign Bonifacio. A trade is a possibility. The Cubs are likely going to moving both Samardzija and Hammel at some point and they may fill this need in the process. They could also trade for an undervalued defensive wizard to play CF. The Cardinals have a ton of outfield depth and may be willing to trade Peter Bourjos. As Lorenzo Cain has a mini-breakout, Jarrod Dyson of the Royals may become expendable and is another intriguing option. For now though I'm listing this position as somewhat incomplete and assuming Emilio Bonifacio will open 2015 as the club's starting CF, with replacement level fill-ins. That's worth 1.5 WAR.
Right Field - Kris Bryant. Destroyer of worlds. It's possible he'll remain at 3rd but if his defense proves to be a liability, he'll end up in the outfield like former 3rd base prospects, Ryan Braun and Alex Gordon. It's taken time for Braun to work himself into an average defender, but Alex Gordon was an above average outfielder from day one and has now become elite. There's no telling how Bryant would play in RF so, like I did with Baez, I'm just going to assume average for the sake of this exercise. Offensively, there are very few questions remaining. Kris Bryant is almost certainly going to produce. The only question is, how high is the ceiling? Like Baez, that's largely going to depend on his contact rate in the Majors. It hasn't been as much of a concern with Bryant as it has with Baez but it's still a concern. I'm just going to go with the 2015 Oliver projection for Bryant. .259, .328 OBP, with 32HRs and a .511 SLG%. If Bryant has that season, with average defense, he'll be worth 3.5 WAR. He's a potential superstar, and wherever he does wind up in the field, if he proves to be a plus defender, he could double that WAR in the following seasons.
Starting Rotation - This is another position where any attempt to forecast for next season is premature until we see what happens with Samardzija and Hammel. That said, I'm still going to do it. He is what we know. Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, and Jake Arrieta are all likely to factor in to next year's plans. Travis Wood is a 2.0 WAR pitcher. Edwin Jackson is worth 1.2 WAR. In a limited capacity, Arrieta is worth 0.5 WAR. The Cubs are likely to get some pitching in return for Samardzija and Hammel but the quality and readiness of that return is unknown so I'm not including any potential returns from those trades. The only really prized pitching prospect the Cubs have, CJ Edwards, is likely to debut at some point in 2015 (assuming no further issues with his shoulder), and I expect he'll be productive immediately. I put Edwards at 1.4 WAR in half a season. That leaves two near full-time spots open. Some interesting free agent options are Francisco Liriano (31), Justin Masterson (30), Jon Lester (31), Brandon McCarthy (31), Ervin Santana (32), Max Scherzer (30), and James Shields (33). I'd bet my house, if I had one, at least one of those guys is in a Cubs uniform to start 2015. Having no clue what return they'll get in trade this season, and which free agent pitchers may sign in the offseason, so I'm just going to give the Cubs 4.4 WAR for those last two rotation spots. That's probably low, as Justin Masterson alone is a 3 WAR pitcher. The number of innings I factored in for each pitcher leaves room for some expected small injuries and Theo and Jed have done very well finding and collection rotation depth, so whether it's Carlos Villanueva returning, or some other combination of bargain pitchers, I'm giving the Cubs 0.6 WAR for fill-in starts.
Bullpen - Despite all the horrific memories of Jose Veras still fresh in our minds, the Cubs have quietly assembled a pretty respectable bullpen. Neil Ramirez has been dominant in his time since being called up. Hector Rondon has been very good. Pedro Strop has pitched much better than his 4.50 ERA suggests. Justin Grimm is a solid middle reliever. Blake Parker, Zac Rosscup, and James Russell are all varying degrees of serviceable. Wesley Wright is good against lefties. Brian Schlitter doesn't make me throw things. Kyuji Fujikawa is working his way back from Tommy John and will likely pitch later this year. Arodys Vizcaino has been dominant in the Minors working his way back from Tommy John this year. All of these guys except Wright and Schlitter are under contract through next season. The Cubs could have a pretty decent bullpen without investing any free agent money in the pen in the off-season but one interesting trend from last year's free agency was the falling prices of relief pitchers. There are all sorts of interesting relief pitchers available, it's pointless for me to even list them. I'll link here and you can see for yourselves. Point is, the Cubs figure to have a better than average bullpen. I figure an average bullpen is worth about 2.7 WAR. With the Cubs depth and quality, I'll give their bullpen a 3.0 WAR projection.
Summary - The 2015 Cubs team I projected looks something like this....
1. CF - Emilio Bonifacio
2. SS - Starlin Castro
3. 1B - Anthony Rizzo
4. RF - Kris Bryant
5. LF - Seth Smith (vs. RHP)/ Junior Lake (vs. LHP)
6. 3B - Chase Headley
7. 2B - Javier Baez
8. C - Russell Martin / Welington Castillo
SP - 1. Justin Masterson
2. Travis Wood
3. Edwin Jackson
4. Brandon McCarthy
5. Jake Arrieta / C.J. Edwards
6. Depth
Total WAR for the Cubs hitters: 22.6
Total WAR for Cubs pitchers: 13.5
Total Win for a replacement level team: 47.7
Cubs 2015 projected win total: 83.8
I was pretty conservative with these projections and this number is assuming the Cubs do not sign an ace starting pitcher. This is also without whatever the Cubs figure to acquire in return for trading Samardzija and Hammel later this season. I think this number shows the Cubs ability to compete as soon as next season. Using these same methods (although with the roster fully intact) I had projected the Brewers to win 80 games this season. They're currently in 1st Place in the Central and hold a 56.8% chance of making the Playoffs. An 84-win projection gives you shot. There is reason to be optimistic.
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