Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Uniform Shopping with Chris Sale

One of my favorite exercises in creating baseball content over the past few years was by Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus, attempting to create a trade package for David Price back in 2014 (Found Here).  Lindbergh assumed the role of GM of the Tampa Bay Rays, the team tasked with finding a suitable return for it's star pitcher set to hit free agency after the 2016 season.  He assigned 11 of his co-workers separate GM roles for each of the Rays potential suitors and asked each to make an offer for David Price.  The results were quite interesting.  Most of the offers were pretty aggressive, but centered almost entirely around minor league prospects.  At the time, I think about half of these would have been considered an overpay.  Looking back, perhaps only the offers from St. Louis (Matt Adams, Stephen Piscotty, and Joe Kelly) and Pittsburgh (Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Nick Kingham, Jonathan Schwind) would have been considered a success for the Rays.  As fans, perhaps this display of how frequently prospects don't pan out should ease our concerns over sacrificing the tantalizing potential of non-established talent we haven't yet seen fail.  Lindbergh ultimately settled on the offer of Joc Pederson, Zach Lee, and Chris Anderson from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Of course, the Rays ultimately received what was considered to be a slightly underwhelming package of Drew Smyly, Willy Adames, and Nick Franklin.  Franklin, despite being Major League ready, never really contributed anything to the Rays.  Smyly, a reliever with the Tigers, transitioned to a starting role with the Rays where he's enjoyed moderate success but has struggled to stay healthy.  Adames is probably the last hope for a breakthrough from the Price trade.  The 20-year-old Shortstop debuted at Double-A this year where he's slashed .277/.372/.452 as one of the youngest players at the level.  There's even been speculation the Rays could to call him up at some point this season.  I'm very high on Adames, but that's not really the point.

I mentioned on Twitter a few days ago I thought the White Sox should capitalize on this trade market devoid of high-end starting pitching and trade Chris Sale before the start of the 2017 season.  Sale has since been suspended by the club for throwing an all-time great temper tantrum when asked to pitch in the White Sox hideous, and probably uncomfortable, 1976 throwback uniforms.  The story is hilarious so I'll link to it (here).  Unlike the Rays with Price, the Sox really aren't under as much pressure to move Sale, who's signed through 2019.  For the same reason, having 3 years of additional team control, he's even more valuable than the comparably talented Price.  So, they have greater freedom to be selective on the when and where decisions surrounding Sale's future.  My reasoning behind trading him now is;

A. The White Sox should not be expecting to contend in Sale's remaining three seasons under contract.  They aren't a good team and there doesn't seem to be a quick fix to reach contention.
B. This is likely their best opportunity to maximize return value with this being a seller's market (see the Chapman deal) and Sale having three more valuable seasons under contract.  In theory, every year Sale moves closer to free-agency, the Sox bargaining power decreases.
C. Pitchers break.  Pretty much all of them break.  Every time the White Sox start Sale, a player they should know by now they're going to have to trade eventually, they're running the risk he blows up and his trade value is destroyed.

Now, I don't have the luxury of 10 coworkers or friends I can ask to send me trade offers for Sale.  So, what I'm going to have to do is assume the role of GM for each of Sale's prospective buyers.  I'll build a trade package and make a brief pitch from each team, with links to each player's baseball reference page, and I'll leave the decision to you, the readers, which offer to accept, if any.

Boston Red Sox: SP - Eduardo Rodriguez, 2B - Yoan Moncada, SP - Michael Kopech, OF - Luis Alexander Basabe, C - Austin Rei

You get an immediate replacement for Sale in your Major League rotation with Rodriguez (23).  Yeah, he's had his struggles this season, but he's only a year removed from being a Top 100 prospect, and he's still a lefty starter throwing 93 mph with a plus changeup and workable Slider.  Moncada is Baseball America's #3 Prospect and is slashing .275/.362/.559 at Double-A despite being only 21 years old.  Kopech (20), a Top 100 prospect according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, was a 1st Round pick for us back in 2014, currently sporting a 1.50 ERA after 4 starts in High-A.  Basabe (19), a toolsy switch-hitting Center Fielder, is our #7 ranked Prospect, currently at Single-A.  Rei (22) is a college Catcher from the University of Washington, showing an impressive ability to control the strike zone with a 10.3% BB rate and 17.6% K rate in 261 Single-A ABs.

New York Yankees: SP - Luis Severino, SS - Jorge Mateo, OF - Aaron Judge, C - Gary Sanchez, SP - Domingo Acevedo

You can slot Severino (22) right into your Major League rotation.  He posted a 2.89 ERA in 62.1 innings in 2015, his rookie season.  He's been killed this season by a combination of bad luck and the long ball, but he's still managed a respectable 3.97 xFIP, and his velocity is actually up a tick to 95.5 mph.  Even if the secondary pitches don't come along, he still could have a career as a valuable late-innings reliever.  Mateo (21), a Dominican Shortstop with elite speed and plus fielding tools, is Baseball America's #26 ranked Prospect.  Judge (24) is a Major League ready Outfielder, rated the #18 Prospect by Baseball Prospectus.  He has big power, smacking 16 homers in 318 Triple-A ABs, while slashing .261/.357/.469.  Sanchez (23) is another Major League ready Prospect, hitting .283 with 10 HRs and 7 SBs in 265 ABs as a Catcher/Designated Hitter at Triple-A.  Acevedo (22), a giant 6-7 242 lb. pitcher, has posted an impressive 4/1 K/BB rate in 7 High-A starts, with a 2.91 FIP.

Cleveland Indians: SP - Mike Clevinger, OF - Clint Frazier, SP - Justus Sheffield, 3B - Yandy Diaz, OF - Greg Allen

We can't offer any established Major League talent, but we can offer an impressive package of Prospects.  Clevinger (25) is a Major League ready Starting Pitcher who's amassed 88-innings at Triple-A with 3.17 ERA and over a strikeout per inning.  Frazier (21) is MLB.com's #27 Prospect.  The 5-tool Outfielder was just promoted to Triple-A after slashing .276/.356/.469, with 13 HRs and 13 SBs in half a season at Double-A.  Sheffield (20), rated the #81 Prospect by Baseball America, has a 3.53 ERA in 18 starts at High-A.  Diaz (24) is a Major League ready Cuban import who's posted some eye-popping plate discipline numbers as he's worked his way quickly through the Minors.  This season he's posted a 1/1 K/BB ratio between Double-A and Triple-A, with a .340/.419/.496 slash line in 238 Triple-A ABs.  The former San Diego State stand-out, Allen (23), is making High-A look easy.  The speedy Outfielder has a .424 OBP and 38 SBs, displaying his great contact skills with an 11.8% K%.

Texas Rangers: OF - Nomar Mazara, 3B - Joey Gallo, SP - Luis Ortiz, SP - Michael Matuella

Mazara (21) has already recorded 372 PAs in the Majors, posting a .286/.339/.426 slash line.  Perhaps the most impressive part of his debut season has been his power potential combined with his well above average 15.9% K%.  This is one of the best young hitters in the game.  Gallo (22), is a Major League ready Prospect with enormous power.  He's smashed 18 HRs in under 300 PAs this season at Triple-A to go with an 18% BB%.  He's also answered concerns about his K% by improving from a 39.5% Triple-A rate in 2015 to a 30.5% rate this season.  Ortiz (20), Baseball America's #64 Prospect, has posted better than a 4/1 K/BB rate in 37 innings at Double-A, with a 3.55 FIP.  Matuella is a lottery ticket.  Once in play to be the #1 Overall pick in the 2015 draft, Matuella (22), slipped to the 3rd Round after having Tommy John surgery just a few months prior to the draft.  He was set to return this June but had to be shutdown after just 3 innings with a ligament sprain in his surgically repaired elbow.

Houston Astros: SS - Alex Bregman, OF - Kyle Tucker, SP - David Paulino, C - Garrett Stubbs

Bregman (22), just made his Major League debut on 7/25, fresh off being named baseball's #1 Prospect by ESPN's Keith Law on the 14th of July.  Alex destroyed Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .306/.406/.580 in 368 PAs, with 20 HRs and 7 SBs.  Good luck finding a better prospect.  Tucker (19), rated the #61 Prospect by Baseball America, is hitting .277 with 30 SBs at Single-A.  At 6-4 there's room for him to grow into his frame and develop some power to pair with his speed and above average hit tool.  Paulino (22) is Baseball America's #91 Prospect.  He's dominated Double-A this season, to the tune of a 1.86 ERA and 10.24 K/9 in 58 innings.  Stubbs (23) is a 2015 2nd Round pick out of USC.  Between High-A and Double-A this season, the talented backstop has hit over .300 with 7 HRs and 11 SBs, and just 39 Ks to 36 BBs in 290 PAs.

Washington Nationals: SP - Joe Ross, OF - Victor Robles, SP - Reynaldo Lopez, 2B/SS - Wilmer Difo

Joe Ross (23), younger brother of 2014 All-Star Tyson Ross, has already tallied 172 Major League innings with a strong 3.56 ERA, and he's under team control through 2021.  He's the type of piece you can build your next contending staff around.  The #29 Prospect in the game, according to Baseball Prospectus, Victor Robles (19) has slashed .289/.390/.436 with 7 HRs and 28 SBs between A and High-A as one of the youngest players at each level.  Lopez (22) is a Major League ready Starting Pitcher with an elite fastball and has shown above average control in the Minors.  He's struck out 116 batters and walked just 31 in 96.1 innings across the three upper levels of baseball, with a 2.90 ERA.  Difo (24) is a Major League ready middle infielder with good speed and contact skills.

New York Mets: SP - Steven Matz, OF - Michael Conforto, SS - Amed Rosario, 2B - Dilson Herrera

Matz (25) is an immediate replacement in your Major League rotation with 5 more years of team control.  In 142 innings in the Majors, Matz has a 3.09 ERA, backed up by a strong 3.49 xFIP.  Conforto (23) is power hitting corner outfielder.  In 453 Major League PAs, Conforto has slashed .248/.318/.430.  The #58 Prospect according to Baseball America, Amed Rosario (20), is a slick-fielding Shortstop who has displayed above average contact skills in the Minors.  He's in the midst of a break-out season, currently hitting .321 with a surprising .464 SLG% in 401 PAs between High-A and Double-A, which should see him rocket even further up Prospect rankings after the season.  This could be the last time he's available.  Herrera (22) is Major League ready middle infielder.  He struggled in first taste of Major League action, hitting just .215 in 149 ABs.  There's reason to believe he'll be a better hitter if given an extended opportunity, though, as he's posted an .846 OPS in 740 PAs at Triple-A.

Chicago Cubs: C/OF - Kyle Schwarber, 2B/OF - Ian Happ, SP - Dylan Cease, OF - Eloy Jimenez, 3B - Jeimer Candelario

Schwarber (23) burst onto the scene in 2015 smacking 16 HRs in just 273 PAs in the Regular Season, followed by another 5 HRs in 31 PAs in the postseason.  He's out for all of 2016 with an ACL injury, but is expected to make a full recovery.  He can play Catcher, Left Field, and First Base but probably projects as more of a DH-type long term.  Happ (21), the #9 Overall pick in the 2015 draft, is ranked as the #67 Prospect by Baseball Prospectus.  The versatile Happ has spent 2016 between High-A and Double-A, slashing .296/.387/.462 across the two levels.  Cease (20) is a power arm, ranked by MLB.com as the Cubs #6 Prospect.  He's currently at Low-A, with a 3.32 ERA and 23 Ks in 21.2 innings.  Jimenez (19), already with 339 ABs at Single-A, is hitting .330 with 11 HRs.  You may have seen him at this year's Future's Game in San Diego.  Eloy went 2-3 with a homer and 4 RBIs.  Candelario (22) is the most Major League ready of this package of prospects.  In 388 PAs between Double-A and Triple-A this year, Candelario has a .353 OBP and a .422 SLG.

San Francisco Giants: SS - Christian Arroyo, SP - Phil Bickford, SS - C.J. Hinojosa, SP - Adalberto Mejia, SP - Joan Gregorio

We're light on trade assets with Major League experience, but we've assembled an impressive package of Prospects nonetheless.  Arroyo (21), a 2013 1st Round pick, is Baseball America's #62 Prospect.  He's currently hitting .285 at Double-A.  The 18th Overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bickford (21), has dominated the low Minors.  In 2016, between Single-A and High-A, Bickford has a 2.72 ERA and 101 Ks in 86 innings.  Hinojosa (22), the former University of Texas stand-out, has hit at very stop through the Minors to this point.  This season, between High-A and Double-A, he's slashed .293/.371/.426.  Ranked by Baseball Prospectus at the #86 Prospect in 2015, Mejia (23), slipped in 2015, only throwing 82.1 innings with mediocre K/BB rates.  He's bounced back in 2016, however, with a 2.81 ERA and 3/1 K/BB rate in 105.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.  He's essentially ready for a shot in the Majors.  Gregorio (24), a regular on Carson Cistulli's Fringe Five, has an impressive strikeout potential, and could wind up being an important bullpen piece if he can't stick as a Starting Pitcher.  He's struggled through 66.1 innings at Triple-A with a 5.43 ERA, but he's maintained the high strikeout rate and a 4.22 FIP suggests he's been pretty unlucky.

Los Angeles Dodgers: CF - Joc Pederson, SP - Jose De Leon, OF - Alex Verdugo, SP - Brock Stewart, 2B - Willie Calhoun

Ok, first off, the catch here is that we want BOTH Chris Sale and Jose Quintana.  Now, before you hang up, listen to our offer....

Pederson (24) had a monster first half in his 2015 rookie season, making the All-Star team, but he collapsed in the second half, stumbling to a .210/.346/.417 slash line.  He's leveled off in 2016, managing a .778 OPS while playing an average Center Field.  He's fallen out of favor a bit here in LA, but there's reason to be encouraged with his progress as he's cut his strike out rate from 29.1% to 25.9% while maintaining his power.  The #23 Prospect as stated by Baseball America, Jose De Leon (23) is a Major League ready starting pitcher with enormous potential.  His K/9 rates in the Minors have been video-game-ridiculous.  Between Double-A and Triple-A, De Leon has struck out 170 batters in 121.1 innings.  Verdugo (20), ranked the #100 Prospect by Baseball America, has rocketed through the Minors, having already amassed 378 PAs and a .794 OPS as one of the youngest players at Double-A.  Stewart (24) is another Major League ready starting pitcher with big strikeout potential.  After starting this year at High-A, Stewart has soared through all of the upper levels of the Minors, posting a 1.82 ERA and an absurd 118/16 K/BB rate in 104 innings across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A.  Calhoun (21) had a strong professional debut in 2015, beginning in Rookie Ball and working his way to High-A by season's end, posting a .909 OPS across three levels.  Calhoun started 2016 at Double-A, unranked by all three major Propsect sites, as has slashed .261/.327/.495 with 22 HRs.  There's some question as to whether he can stick at 2B with the glove, but the guy can hit.

Pick your return.....



Which offer Do you accept?