Baseball Q & A

My cousin, Nathan Perry, sent me this Q & A (unaltered in italics)... I received his permission to submit my response here, for all to see. Nathan is one of my favorite people. You may know him as a former Thanksgiving Day Football MVP, or his more recent work, playing a key supporting role in bringing a human life into this world. It's also possible you don't know Nathan, in which case, it's safe to forget about Nathan, as one picture of his young daughter Cora far surpasses the sum of Nathan's work as measured by today's currency, Faves and Likes. I figure, for those who know you, you're like our own personal Cubs expert... so, this is my feeble attempt to interview you with questions I actually want to know your opinion on:

Q: Who is the most valuable player on the Cubs team? To further clarify, if the Cubs could only keep one player who would it be? The definition of 'value' as it relates to players has been argued endlessly, most often in debating MVP candidates. There's an argument that the spirit of celebrating 'value' is in recognizing the most outstanding player. By that argument, the most valuable Cubs player is Kris Bryant. Judged on performance, as well as handsomeness, he's easily the most irreplaceable player on the roster. The other camp asserts a more literal definition of 'value' demands that salary, and in this case, the entirety of the player's contract status be considered equally in determining the player's value to the team. In this case, Anthony Rizzo is at least in the mix. Bryant and Rizzo are both under team control through 2021. Rizzo signed an extension with the Cubs in 2013 to buy out all of his years of team control, plus two team options (2020 and 2021). Bryant has not signed and extension and will enter arbitration as a Super Two qualifier (top 22% in service time for players between 2-3 years of Major League service) next off-season. Rizzo's value is easier to calculate, so we'll start there. Anthony projects to average of 4.5 WAR per season over the next 5 years, for a total of 22.5 WAR. Over that time he'll make $54.86 million. That's about $2.44 million per win. With Bryant, I'm going to have to estimate how much he'll earn through arbitration, but he appears to be a lock at this point to smash arbitration records. He'll earn around $800,000 this upcoming season, his last standard raise under team contract renewal. I'll estimate $5 million for his first year of arbitration, $12 million his second year, $18 million in his third, and $23 million in his final year of arbitration. That's a total of $58.8 million over five years. Bryant projects better than Rizzo, with a 5.9 WAR average, or a total of 29.5 WAR. That's $1.99 million per win. The average amount paid per win in free agency is around $8 million. So, in the next five years, Rizzo's net value to the Cubs is about $125,000,000. Bryant's net value is even greater, at around $177,000,000. So, the answer is Bryant, by both measures, but both are tremendously valuable. Easily both in the top 10 of most valuable players.

Q: Although they are important in different ways, Who would be the greater loss to the Cubs: Joe Maddon or Theo Epstein? What a manager provides is not as easily quantifiable as a GM or, in Theo's case, President of Baseball Operations. My simple answer is Theo. I believe Maddon is one the better managers in baseball. Unfortunately, I can't really back that up with much data. I think he's around average as an in-game tactician, though seemingly both creative and flexible. From all accounts, he's among the best at managing a clubhouse. It's impossible to prove it's true or how much that's worth, but I tend to believe it, nonetheless. Where Theo excels, there's data to back up his performance. He's one of the best handful of baseball executives, and just received a pay raise to reflect that. In fact, even at $10 million per year over five years, I think he's underpaid. I'm not convinced baseball is correctly valuing it's executives. Surely an elite front office executive provides more value than say, Ian Kennedy, a back of the rotation starting pitcher who signed last off-season with the Royals for $70 million over 5 years. Kennedy might provide the Royals 10 WAR over those five years. Just one good trade, signing, or draft pick by an elite GM can be worth that to an organization, valued on the open market by Kansas City as worth $70 million. I think it's fair to estimate that Theo's been worth hundreds of million of dollars to the Cubs, and baseball owners seem to be sluggish to recognize that an investment in the baseball operations department likely has several times more value per dollar than a free-agent signing at this point. The argument against Epstein is, perhaps everything that he has to offer as an executive was put in place over the course of his first contract, and even if he were to leave, there'd be enough of a residual effect from his presence that any drop off in front performance would be minimal. To me, it's worth $10 million per year to keep him around. Ten million dollars is nothing to a Major League organization. If the price were to double, though, I think it would be worth considering letting him go, as he's worth less to you at that point, having already established a top-to-bottom process that can be replicated without his leadership, than he is to another organization looking to rebuild it's front office.

Q: Inevitably, Cubs will lose players like Fowler to Free Agency, choose not to extend offers to guys like Hammel and some will retire such as Ross. Who are some players in the next two, three, five, etc years that will be heartbreaking for the Cubs to cut ties with, but it will eventually be inevitable to do so? The Cubs are in a pretty great situation right now. They're really not at risk to lose anyone they can't replace, and don't want to let go. Their core of position players are all under contract through at least 2021. I imagine they'll probably lock up most of those guys to extensions in the coming years. Bryant is likely to be the most expensive, and most difficult to sign, as he's represented by super-agent Scott Boras who regularly advises his clients to test the open market. In the short-term, Jake Arrieta is the one guy they're going to have to make a tough decision on. He's a free agent next off-season and he's likely to get a large contract. I really can't say with any confidence one way or another if the Cubs will re-sign him. Personally, I'd be hesitant to go beyond 5 years and $120 million with Arrieta. This could all certainly change between now and the end of next season, but at this point, there's very little chance Arrieta will get less than 5 years and $120 million.

Q: Which NL teams are not being talked about that should be feared? The Colorado Rockies would head that list for me. I think they're ready to take a step forward in 2017 and compete. Their outfield is strong and deep (Blackmon, CarGo, David Dahl, Gerardo Parra, and Raimel Tapia). I think their best bet is to trade either Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon, and play Tapia, the best defender of the group, in Center Field. Dahl and whoever is left of Cargo/Blackmon would play in the corners. Arenado is an MVP candidate at Third Base. Trevor Story, Shortstop, and D.J. LeMahieu, Second Base, are both above average starters. They could use some help at Catcher and First Base. They have solid depth at Cather, with three legitimate options, though none of them are better than average. Given the Rockies limited resources, I'd imagine they'll just stick with what the have there and invest in First Base. As of today, the Rockies listed First Baseman is Gerardo Parra. They can't open the season with that. They could either try to get a First Baseman in trade, or dip into free agency and try to sign one of Mike Napoli, Mitch Moreland, or Adam Lind. None of those three strike me as very exciting, but all are better than Gerardo Parra. Even as is, Colorado has one of the better sets of position players in the NL. That alone could carry them to 80+ wins. Jon Gray is their Ace, and he's really good, but behind him there's still some unanswered questions. With Chad Bettis, Tyler Chatwood, Tyler Anderson, and Jeff Hoffman, there's better back-end depth than past Rockies rotations, but they still lack middle of the rotation depth. I don't expect the Rockies to make a major splash in free agency, so if they're going to compete next year, they're either going to have to gamble on low-cost, medium upside free agent, add pitching via trade (likely Blackmon or CarGo), or just hope that someone takes a major step forward in development. The bullpen is a bit soft too, but that's an easier fix. That can be patched together. Another dark horse would be the Phillies. They have a good pitching staff, but lack the offensive punch of Colorado.

Q: Cubs have now had their glory, which AL team and which NL team do you want to see pull home World Series Titles other than your obvious preference of the Cubs? I actually have a few. In the AL, I want to see Cleveland get one, and I think they're in the best position of the teams I'm going to mention. I've been partial to the Indians for a couple years. I think Cleveland is a very well run organization, I have a good friend living in the city, and after this past season's heartbreaking finish, I'd be happy to see them get one. Honorable mention to the Houston Astros, Tampa Bay Rays, and Oakland A's. In the NL, I'd have to say Pittsburgh. Again, like all the AL teams I mentioned, they're a very efficiently run small market team that hasn't seen a World Series Champion in over 25 years. That seems to be my criteria.

Q: How much more (if any) does winning a World Series allow Ownership to spend on players/ coaches? Well, this is difficult to answer as there aren't exactly figures for this, but there are several years of estimates. First off, all playoff revenue is divided between the Commissioner's office, the teams, and a player pool. The Cubs organization likely collected between $20-30 million in revenue. The Cubs players receive 36% of the player pool, likely in the $25-30 million range, to divide among themselves, projected in the $350,000 - $450,000 range for per share. I couldn't find anything on what the coaching staff receives, but I assume most coaches probably have a bonus system attached to their contracts to account for postseason and World Series appearances and victories. Forbes has estimated that the Cubs World Series victory has added $300 million to the overall value of the franchise. It's impossible to say how much of that will be re-invested directly into the team. It's certainly a larger boost to smaller market teams than Chicago, but with the Ricketts and minority investors funding all of the renovations, probably nearing a billion dollars, both in and around Wrigley Field, any additional value to the franchise could be applied to help covering the cost of the renovations. Without going off on a tangent, I just want to add that in this age of billionaire sports franchise owners using strong arm tactics to hold a city's beloved team hostage in demanding the local populations approve tax-payer funded stadium deals, the Cubs ownership should be commended for funding their own renovations.

Q: There are the obvious big name Free Agents such as Bautista, Encarnacion, Chapman, Jansen, etc... but who are the free agents that people are not talking about who could be a big game changer for the teams who pick them up at good market value? It's a weak free agent class, especially for position players. I'm not sure anyone is going to hit any home-runs without shelling out some cash, but here's a few guys to keep and eye on. PITCHERS Mark Melancon, Relief Pitcher, has been just as good at run prevention over the past four years as Chapman and Jansen but will only command probably half the overall cost. I liked Charlie Morton as a cheap back-end rotation piece, but he already signed with Houston for 2 years and $14 million. I love Rich Hill, and I think he'll come at a bit of a discount because of his age and injury risk. I'd be pretty happy if the Cubs signed him for 3 years, let Arrieta walk at the end of next year, and worked on adding depth pieces between now and then. Ivan Nova is another pretty interesting back-end of the rotation guy. He only walked 1.56 batters per 9-innings last season in 162 innings, with a 3.70 xFIP. That has a lot of value, but he hasn't proven he can do it consistently, so he may only get a 2 or 3-year deal in the $10-12 million per year range. One season like he had last year is worth about $20 million, so there's room for him to exceed the value of the contract. HITTERS Justin Turner, Third Base, is the real prize in my eyes. He's only 3 years removed from being considered a light-hitting, platoon-only, reserve infielder. I think the market is going to lag behind considering him a legitimate 3.5 WAR player. I like Carlos Gomez, too. He's had a couple rough seasons, battling injuries, but I still think he's a major league average starter when he's on the field. He's probably not going to get more than 1 or 2 years and $10 million per year. He can be a really sneaky good addition for a team like Cleveland, Seattle, or Toronto that expects to compete and needs an outfielder. Q: Last question. It's game seven of the NLCS at Wrigley field and the Cubs are playing their division rivals the St. Louis Cardinals. Chapman did not get resigned with the Cubs. It's the bottom of the 9th inning with the Cubs up 1-0. Unfortunately, the bases are loaded, but there are 2 outs. Cardinals have a red hot, Matt Carpenter up to bat with an equally on fire Piscotty available to pinch-hit if a Lefty is brought in relief. You can only choose one RELIEVER from the Cubs staff (current or someone you believe the Cubs may truly sign). Who do you send in?

Off this team's current roster, given today's information projected out to next October in a hypothetical NLCS game, I'd send in Hector Rondon. Neither Rondon or Strop finished the year strong, and there's some question how effective they'll be come 2017, but I'd still project Rondon to be the best out of the returning group. Carl Edwards Jr. isn't far behind those two, and could leap frog one or both Rondon and Strop between now and late next season. I think the Cubs will likely add a late-inning bullpen arm this off-season, either through trade or free agency. For the price, I like Melancon, as I stated above. I'd use him over anyone on the current roster.